Health risks related to air pollution by transport categories and vehicle types: Comparison by mortality indicators

Abstract

Background:
The transports are challenged by the need of sustainable, energy-efficient, and pollution-free services. Environmental epidemiology has confirmed substantial health impacts from traffic fine particles (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), but emerging evidence suggests additional burden due to black carbon (BC), ultrafine particles (UFP), and secondary organic aerosols (SOA). Our aim is to make an overview of the potential transport sector air pollution health risks remaining after implementing most of the current legislation by EU27 in 2030.

Methods:
We extend the established emission-intake-effect framework and apply exposure efficiencies by vehicle types and use effect factors estimated from epidemiological relative risks for each pollutant to calculate attributable mortalities by vehicle types, fuels, and non-exhaust emissions.

Results:
Our results suggest that in 2030, primary fine particle (pPM2.5) emissions from the transport sector may still be responsible for 10,296 (95% CI 7867–11,476) premature deaths in EU27. When compared with alternative air pollution indicators, estimates were 18,686 (9436–36,654) for nitrogen dioxide, 5037 (2446–7620) for black carbon, and 1476 (1017–1956) for secondary organic aerosols. However, largest single pollutant mortality estimate was calculated for ultrafine particles (37,582 (31,569–43,219)). Road traffic and diesel exhausts stand out as dominant sources.

Discussion:
These emissions seem central for targeting effective control policies. However, toxicological evidence needs to be incorporated with the current epidemiology-based multipollutant indicators. Variable extent and consistency of epidemiological evidence on the five pollutants should be considered when interpreting these results.