Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake
Virkkala, Anna-Maria; Rogers, Brendan M.; Watts, Jennifer D.; Arndt, Kyle A.; Potter, Stefano; Wargowsky, Isabel; Schuur, Edward A. G.; See, Craig R.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Boike, Julia; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Burke, Eleanor J.; Burrell, Arden; Chae, Namyi; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Chevallier, Frederic; Christensen, Torben R.; Commane, Roisin; Dolman, Han; Edgar, Colin W.; Elberling, Bo; Emmerton, Craig A.; Euskirchen, Eugenie S.; Feng, Liang; Göckede, Mathias; Grelle, Achim; Helbig, Manuel; Holl, David; Järveoja, Järvi; Karsanaev, Sergey V.; Kobayashi, Hideki; Kutzbach, Lars; Liu, Junjie; Luijkx, Ingrid T.; López-Blanco, Efrén; Lunneberg, Kyle; Mammarella, Ivan; Marushchak, Maija E.; Mastepanov, Mikhail; Matsuura, Yojiro; Maximov, Trofim C.; Merbold, Lutz; Meyer, Gesa; Nilsson, Mats B.; Niwa, Yosuke; Oechel, Walter; Palmer, Paul I.; Park, Sang-Jong; Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Peichl, Matthias; Peters, Wouter; Petrov, Roman; Quinton, William; Rödenbeck, Christian; Sachs, Torsten; Schulze, Christopher; Sonnentag, Oliver; St. Louis, Vincent L.; Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina; Ueyama, Masahito; Varlagin, Andrej; Zona, Donatella; Natali, Susan M. (2025-01-21)
Springer
21.01.2025
Virkkala, AM., Rogers, B.M., Watts, J.D. et al. Wildfires offset the increasing but spatially heterogeneous Arctic–boreal CO2 uptake. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 188–195 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02234-5
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© The Author(s) 2025, corrected publication 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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© The Author(s) 2025, corrected publication 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-202503132008
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-202503132008
Tiivistelmä
Abstract
The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2 sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −14 Tg C yr−1; P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO2 source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −9 Tg C yr−1), and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr−1; trend, −3 Tg C yr−1), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.
The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO2 fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO2 sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −14 Tg C yr−1; P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO2 source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr−1; trend, −9 Tg C yr−1), and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr−1; trend, −3 Tg C yr−1), underscoring the importance of fire in this region.
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