Time-varying trends from Arctic ozonesonde time series in the years 1994-2022
Nilsen, K.; Kivi, R.; Laine, M.; Poyraz, D.; Van Malderen, R.; von der Gathen, P.; Tarasick, D. W.; Thölix, L.; Jepsen, N. (2024-11-12)
Springer
12.11.2024
Nilsen, K., Kivi, R., Laine, M. et al. Time-varying trends from Arctic ozonesonde time series in the years 1994–2022. Sci Rep 14, 27683 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-75364-7.
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© The Author(s) 2024. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
© The Author(s) 2024. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
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Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-202411146741
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-202411146741
Tiivistelmä
Abstract
Although evidence of recovery in Antarctic stratospheric ozone has been found, evidence of recovery in Arctic ozone is still elusive, even though 25 years have passed since the peak in ozone depleting substances. Here we have used a Dynamic Linear Model to derive time-varying trends over 20-year periods in the Arctic ozone time series, measured in-situ by ozonesondes from 6 stations, from 1994 to 2022. The model accounts for seasonality, external forcing and 1st-order correlation in the residuals. As proxies for the external forcing, we have used tropopause pressure (replaced with Arctic Oscillation in the troposphere), eddy heat flux, the volume of polar stratospheric clouds multiplied by effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm for the 11-year solar cycle. Our results indicate that the ozone recovery in the lower Arctic stratosphere is not detectable. Though significant positive trends have been detected prior to 2017 at some stations, there are no statistically significant positive trends after 2017. Moreover, at a number of stations the trends after 2019 are rather negative and significant, varying between − 0.30 ± 0.25 and − 1.00 ± 0.85% per decade. Furthermore, the Arctic troposphere exhibited only statistically significant negative trends over 20-year periods ending in 2017 or later, varying between − 0.31 ± 0.27 and − 1.76 ± 0.41% per decade. These results highlight the importance of continued monitoring of the Arctic ozone.
Although evidence of recovery in Antarctic stratospheric ozone has been found, evidence of recovery in Arctic ozone is still elusive, even though 25 years have passed since the peak in ozone depleting substances. Here we have used a Dynamic Linear Model to derive time-varying trends over 20-year periods in the Arctic ozone time series, measured in-situ by ozonesondes from 6 stations, from 1994 to 2022. The model accounts for seasonality, external forcing and 1st-order correlation in the residuals. As proxies for the external forcing, we have used tropopause pressure (replaced with Arctic Oscillation in the troposphere), eddy heat flux, the volume of polar stratospheric clouds multiplied by effective equivalent stratospheric chlorine, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm for the 11-year solar cycle. Our results indicate that the ozone recovery in the lower Arctic stratosphere is not detectable. Though significant positive trends have been detected prior to 2017 at some stations, there are no statistically significant positive trends after 2017. Moreover, at a number of stations the trends after 2019 are rather negative and significant, varying between − 0.30 ± 0.25 and − 1.00 ± 0.85% per decade. Furthermore, the Arctic troposphere exhibited only statistically significant negative trends over 20-year periods ending in 2017 or later, varying between − 0.31 ± 0.27 and − 1.76 ± 0.41% per decade. These results highlight the importance of continued monitoring of the Arctic ozone.
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