Modelling extreme precipitation projections under the effects of climate change: case study of the Caspian Sea
Moradian, Sogol; Gharbia, Salem; Torabi Haghighi, Ali; Olbert, Indiana A. (2024-09-30)
Taylor & Francis
30.09.2024
Moradian, S., Gharbia, S., Torabi Haghighi, A., & Olbert, I. A. (2025). Modelling extreme precipitation projections under the effects of climate change: case study of the Caspian Sea. International Journal of Water Resources Development, 41(1), 57–77. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2024.2400505
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© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent.
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The terms on which this article has been published allow the posting of the Accepted Manuscript in a repository by the author(s) or with their consent.
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Julkaisun pysyvä osoite on
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-202410076188
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi:oulu-202410076188
Tiivistelmä
Abstract
Climate change is expected to alter climate extremes. This paper evaluates future changes in extreme precipitation events over the Caspian Sea, where the changes are noticeable due to its geographical location and remoteness from the ocean. Using bias-corrected data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and extreme value analysis, this study shows increased precipitation from 18.48 mm/month in 1980–2014 to 19.50–19.82 mm/month in 2015–2100, depending on the climate scenario. Additionally, extreme events in the future are projected to increase over the sea due to climatic changes, depicting the emergence of droughts/floods that could occur more frequently in the region.
Climate change is expected to alter climate extremes. This paper evaluates future changes in extreme precipitation events over the Caspian Sea, where the changes are noticeable due to its geographical location and remoteness from the ocean. Using bias-corrected data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and extreme value analysis, this study shows increased precipitation from 18.48 mm/month in 1980–2014 to 19.50–19.82 mm/month in 2015–2100, depending on the climate scenario. Additionally, extreme events in the future are projected to increase over the sea due to climatic changes, depicting the emergence of droughts/floods that could occur more frequently in the region.
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