Temporal shift of hydroclimatic regime and its influence on migration of a high latitude meandering river

Abstract

Abstract

Climate change alters high latitude hydrological cycle by diminishing the snow accumulation and spring flood magnitude, and by altering temperature and rainfall finally leading to hydroclimatic regime shift from snow-dominated to rain-dominated. These changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and discharge strongly influence geomorphological processes in fluvial environments, leading to alterations in sediment transport, erosion, accumulation, and landscape changes. We conducted comprehensive analysis of hydroclimatic trends and shifts on boreal Oulanka River system, spanning over the past five decades. A strong signal of warming temperatures (+0.61 Celsius/decade), reduced winter conditions and warmer summers (+0.41 Celsius/decade) was detected. The spring flood magnitude diminished 7 %, but high discharge peaks (Q > annual p90m3/s) during other seasons increased 22 % together with 28 % increase of annual minimum discharge. Simultaneously, precipitation intensity increased during summer. The meander migration rate (mean 0.89 or 2.55 m/year) and bank erosion volume were interconnected to ground frost, high snow sum, high discharge, and high-water level during spring flood, but no significant long-term trends were observed. Our findings underscore that climate is the first-order control on fluvial geomorphology and emphasizes the complex interplay between various hydrological and climatic factors that shape the dynamics of river systems. Based on the results, we expect to see changes in the spatial–temporal distribution of high latitude rivers sediment flux in future. In addition, more attention should be addressed to the thaw seasons controlling the sediment transport, as majority of the observed shifts took place in these months.