Modeling non-linear changes in an urban setting : from pro-environmental affordances to responses in behavior, emissions and air quality
Hulkkonen, Mira; Kaaronen, Roope O.; Kokkola, Harri; Mielonen, Tero; Clusius, Petri; Xavier, Carlton; Hellén, Heidi; Niemi, Jarkko V.; Malila, Jussi (2023-02-03)
Hulkkonen, M., Kaaronen, R.O., Kokkola, H. et al. Modeling non-linear changes in an urban setting: From pro-environmental affordances to responses in behavior, emissions and air quality. Ambio 52, 976–994 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-022-01827-8
Ó The Author(s) 2023. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
https://urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-fe20231103142875
Tiivistelmä
Abstract
Interactions in urban environment were investigated using a multidisciplinary model combination, with focus on traffic, emissions and atmospheric particles. An agent-based model was applied to simulate the evolution of unsustainable human behavior (usage of combustion-based personal vehicles) as a function of pro-environmental affordances (opportunities for sustainable choices). Scenarios regarding changes in multi-pollutant emissions were derived, and the non-linear implications to atmospheric particles were simulated with a box model. Based on the results for a Nordic city, increasing pro-environmental affordances by 10%, 50% or 100% leads to emission reductions of 15%, 30% and 40% within 2 years. To reduce ambient particle mass, emissions from traffic should decrease by > 15%, while the lung deposited surface area decreases in all scenarios (–23%, –32%and –36%, correspondingly). The presented case is representative of one season, but the approach is generic and applicable to simulating a full year, given meteorological and pollution data that reflects seasonal variation. This work emphasizes the necessity to consider feedback mechanisms and non-linearities in both human behavior and atmospheric processes, when predicting the outcomes of changes in an urban system.
Kokoelmat
- Avoin saatavuus [34516]