Stock market implications of Fed’s balance sheet size

Abstract

<div lang="en" class="abs"><p class="abs_header">Abstract</p><p><em>Purpose:</em> Considering the relationship between the central bank balance sheet and unconventional monetary policy after the 2008 financial crisis, it is crucial to see how the unconventional monetary policy, given near-zero interest rates, affects future stock market performance. This paper analyzes the impact of the Fed’s balance sheet size on stock market performance.</p><p><em>Design/methodology/approach:</em> To analyze the Fed’s balance sheet size’s long-term stock market implications, this paper uses the asset pricing framework of market return predictability such as Ordinary least squares (OLS) and Generalized method of moments (GMM) analysis.</p><p><em>Findings:</em> Findings in this paper suggest that the Fed’s balance sheet size, deflated by asset market wealth, presents evidence of return predictability during 1926–2015 that is robust against standard controls. These results can be explained through the redistribution of risk and the wealth channels of monetary policy transmission. The changing balance sheet size of a central bank (1) affects systemic risk, yields and expectations and (2) signals the future direction of monetary policy and thus economic outlook.</p><p><em>Research limitations/implications:</em> The main implication of these findings is that policymakers should avoid a severe imbalance between a central bank’s balance sheet size and assets market wealth.</p><p><em>Originality/value:</em> The empirical evidence in this paper documents a century-old relation between the Fed’s balance sheet size and US stock market return using the Fed’s balance sheet data for the last 100 years and stock market returns from the Center for research in security prices (CRSP) database.</p></div>